cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/7362179
I’m looking to see what coastal areas would be impacted, what regions would get above certain temperatures , etc, we all see sporadic invidual image of these predictions in articles online but I wonder if there’s a tool for that, ideally open source.
EDIT: answers (unsure if O.S.)
https://wcrp-cmip.org/cmip-phase-6-cmip6/
https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=24.6.0
Can’t speak for OP, but I was hoping there was a straightforward front end out there to play with variations on a theme - my own use case would be plotting the next 5-25 years. Something like “How many miles do I strictly need to move to have a reasonable chance of temps <= 80 F on all but the most brutal handful of August days?”
Basically, I figure that at this point in life I’ve got 1-2 more short/medium-term moves in me at most, and zero desire to ever do it again after I retire (assuming that I can/do). For the lay crowd, there’s not really a way to flip through projections.
Not averse to trying to come up with a way to do it in QGIS, just don’t want to reinvent the wheel if there’s a straightforward site out there already doing it.
Absolutely understandable. Maybe there is some easy tool around, but I see some potential problems.
Questions such as “Is this zone habitable in 2035” or “Will this area be ocean in 2050” are extremely hard to answer with our current knowledge and available data. As you probably know, climate scientists speak of probabilities, as projections e.g.for temperature are highly uncertain, especially in the more far away future. If there is a tool answering such questions, you probably can’t trust it. Then, you will likely not get a one does it all tool, as the questions OP asked are highly specific. All in all the matter is very complex and there are no easy answer. You need some kind of motivation to gather a certain amount of background knowledge about the topic.
I think what comes closest to what OP wants is downloading model results from largely accepted climate models such as CMIP6. They usually come in special file formats that can efficiently store geospatial time series, such as netCDF or HDF5. There are tools like Panoply where you can do some very nice visualisations. You do not need to code neither is the software very complex. QGIS and ArcGIS are overkill here, as you would not want to do spatial analysis but only visualize.
The work you would need to do is 1) understanding what you want - there is not a single result, instead you have climate projections under several different scenarios, model assumptions, input data etc. You need to figure out what to choose. 2) Have a decent feeling of geospatial visualization techniques. Cartography is a complex field, and correctly visualizing data is pretty hard.
I am sorry I cannot provide easy solution. WhatI can offer is helping to acquire data if you what you want and also I can give technical support on visualization software. Maybe also give you some guidelines on how to interpret a figure.
Sea level rise is happening and will displace a lot of people who live at sea level, but its not going to rise a ton. Just get land at least 10 meters above sea level and you’ll be fine.
I hope you are joking. That’s average. So 10m above sea level, but washed away twice per year by the more energetic storms and floods.
Well dont build on sand or a cliff…
@delirious_owl Oh wow, look at this guy, he just solved it all! Now we can finally put all the climate change worries behind. Thanks for saving the world.
Climate change is real. But my point is that you don’t need to execute a climate simulator to find land that will be liveable for the next some-odd generations (barring nuclear war, which is a much more difficult thing to plan-for and survive)
Just get air conditioning and ice machines running with solar power. If its hot, you have sun.
If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. If you kitchen is on fire, grill sausages. If your crops are dying, eat dirt. I mean the positive attitude is nice, but it does break down a bit towards the end…
Don’t eat sausages, that contributes to climate change.
If your crops are dying, you’re doing something wrong. Most commonly, this is due to monocropping and use of petrochemicals
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Even better, here’s a direct link to a NASA page discussing the data: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150192/tracking-30-years-of-sea-level-rise
Some quotes from the page:
Scientists have found that global mean sea level—shown in the line plot above and below—has risen 10.1 centimeters (3.98 inches) since 1992. Over the past 140 years, satellites and tide gauges together show that global sea level has risen 21 to 24 centimeters (8 to 9 inches).
“With 30 years of data, we can finally see what a huge impact we have on the Earth’s climate,” said Josh Willis, an oceanographer at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and NASA’s project scientist for Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich. “The rise of sea level caused by human interference with the climate now dwarfs the natural cycles. And it is happening faster and faster every decade.”
The altimetry data also show that the rate of sea level rise is accelerating. Over the course of the 20th century, global mean sea level rose at about 1.5 millimeters per year. By the early 1990s, it was about 2.5 mm per year. Over the past decade, the rate has increased to 3.9 mm (0.15 inches) per year.
While a few millimeters of sea level rise per year may seem small, scientists estimate that every 2.5 centimeters (1 inch) of sea level rise translates into 2.5 meters (8.5 feet) of beachfront lost along the average coast. It also means that high tides and storm surges can rise even higher, bringing more coastal flooding, even on sunny days. In a report issued in February 2022, U.S. scientists concluded that by 2050 sea level along U.S. coastlines could rise between 25 to 30 centimeters (10 to 12 inches) above today’s levels.
Yes Al Gore (and other people with too much money) should consume less energy (including electricity), but no that changes nothing about the importance of his (then) message, and yes there are plenty of places that are already suffering from the effects sea level rise. You are fooling yourself and its harming us all.
but no that changes nothing about the importance of his (then) message
His then message that was bullshit? Look I’m going to denying we’ve a climate issue, I’m just saying most of what he said was proven to be exaggerated bullshit.
@jonuno graphs and numbers, but try to create your favorite solution and then see what it will cost: https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=24.6.0
