Mostly kind chonky weirdo. Gentle nerd freak of the pacific north west. All nation states are vermin.

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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 24th, 2023

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  • Why shoot up a public concert hall if your enemy is Putin and not the general public.

    Why do any extremists - or russia, the US or israel for that matter - target violence towards civilians?

    Maybe they believe the cause is worth it, the tactical calculus still comes out in their favour, or they just hate all russians? General destabilization? Forcing the state to devote more resources to protecting soft civilian infrastructure. Making people feel unsafe. Inspiring similar atrocities. The logic of tactically deploying murder isn’t always clear to an outsider, especially before we have a firm idea who did this.

    I strongly doubt this is an “honest-to-goodness sign of revolution”. Shooting concert-goers is obviously not that. But I don’t think it’s logically sound to rule out an anti-putin motivation just because civilians were killed.







  • I lived in Taiwan 5 years ago, so I’m less comfortable talking about specific recent events.

    That said, I think it would be fair to say that relations with the mainland are still the overriding question in Taiwanese politics. There’s just nothing else as pressing or relevant, it colors most other issues.

    The thing is that neither formal declared independence nor becoming a province of China are electorally viable platforms. Voters and opinion polls consistently show that they want the status quo: defacto independence, access to Chinese economic opportunities, and no invasions please.

    Declared independence and reunification are both less popular than staying in the increasingly narrow space of having your cake and eating it too that is available without provoking an armed response.


  • DPP wants to continue the defacto situation as is while pursuing greater cultural distinction from the mainland. They also have some openly pro independence types, and the much more numerous ‘independence when it won’t obviously get us invaded’ types. They tend to be more progressive in general - gay marriage, marijuana legislation style.

    KMT is contains most of the ‘status quo with less cultural distinction from the mainland’ voices. Pro-unification folks too, but that’s a minority. Historically they were far right anti communists who ran the military dictatorship, so squaring that circle with pro-unification sentiment has lead to some weird positions. They’re also more conservative, often crazily so. I had KMT supporters earnestly explain that Tsai Ingwen was actually a man in disguise.

    Largely, both parties want some but differing degrees of economic ties with China. Any other position is impractical.

    Indigenous voters are far more likely to be rural, which tends to coincide with culturally conservative.

    There’s also a very complicated history of ethnic politics in Taiwan. Multiple historic waves of migration from different areas of the mainland, along with the Japanese imperial period. The DPP have focused on Minnan speaking Taiwanese as a locus of independent Taiwanese identity, sometimes to the detriment of Hokkien speaking or other group.

    Indigenous Taiwanese had been attacked, marginalized and treated harshly by these successive waves and during the Japanese period, so when the nationalists lost the civil war in China and fled to Taiwan to set up the military dictatorship, they were viewed as something like liberators by many indigenous people.

    It’s complicated.