• 89 Posts
Joined 8 months ago
Cake day: November 21st, 2023


  • The CHIPS Act was signed in 2022.

    In 2022, what were the top bleeding-edge node semiconductor fabs? TSMC (Taiwan), Samsung (South Korea), and Intel (USA). Do you see China on that list?

    In 2022, what was the only company with a functioning 28nm DUV lithography machine? ASML (Netherlands).

    US sanctions – and US sanctions alone – pushed Chinese investment into semiconductors. If you actually worked in the industry, you’d know that the Chinese government has tried for more than a decade to get Chinese companies to use Chinese semiconductor tech… To no avail. The US stabbed itself in the foot, pushed Chinese private capital into Chinese semiconductor firms (instead of foreign ones), and the rest is history. This is basic capitalist theory.

    I guess you can also ignore the $15 billion bailout for airlines?

    But sure, let’s talk about the great backlash to the GM bailout… ignoring the Chrysler bailout. Ignoring the bailouts of JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs… All essential for national security, or so I’m told.

    Let’s now talk about companies in China’s EV race… WM Motor, which used to outsell Tesla, is gone. Byton, gone. Aiway, gone. Levdeo, gone. Mitsubishi, gone. Honda, Hyundai, and Ford? All desperate to cut out their JVs.

  • Western countries support individual companies constantly.

    Intel received $8.5 billion in funding under the CHIPS Act

    The General Motors bailout forced the US government to write off a $11.2 billion loss

    Shell, ExxonMobil, and others have received countless billions in O&G subsidies

    Government sales make up $49.2 billion, or 74.6% of Lockheed Martin’s total sales

    The entire principle of US industrial policy is that the government does nothing and everything should be outsourced to a private contractor. Inherently that must mean supporting some private companies more than others.

    Your argument makes literally no sense when considering that Chinese companies consistently and notoriously sell their products in China for a fraction of the cost of the export models. BYD’s Atto 3 sells for $20k in China and more than $40k in the EU, for example. Those export prices aren’t subsidized. In fact, their margins are absolutely absurd.

    The fact is that China has figured out industrial manufacturing and can build the same class of product for half the price… Or less. Of course, there’s no reason to pass those savings onto consumers without competition, and export markets are simply less competitive than China.

  • 4.7% YoY Q2

    5.3% YoY Q1

    0.7% QoQ Q2

    1.5% QoQ Q1

    Retail sales were the contributor (2.0% YoY growth, vs. 3.3% expected)

    Retail growth is being sandbagged by a few key factors:

    1. Luxury goods demand being beaten to the absolute ground. Eviscerated.

    2. Foreign brands have tanked in China - Apple, foreign cars, etc. and have been replaced by (cheaper) domestic alternatives like Huawei, BYD, etc.

    3. New trade restrictions with the US and Europe have limited Chinese consumption patterns. For example, the RTX 4090 is blocked from being exported to China.

  • You do realize that renewables still have an emissions footprint from manufacturing, transportation, deployment, transmission, and recycling/retirement… Right? That they’re limited lifespan disposable goods? So are batteries.

    Moreover, each new solar panel has an opportunity cost in that it could be used to supplant fossil fuels in an area of the world that would actually benefit from it, rather than helping a facility THAT ALREADY HAS A TEMPERATURE CONTROL SYSTEM cool things down further because Americans are too spoiled with their extreme electricity consumption patterns to do anything else.