Ukraine was already in a civil war past 2014, and most people in eastern Ukraine are ethnically Russian or have family ties to Russia. They do not see this as an invasion. A few slides from this lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 clearly show the dynamics in Ukraine. First, here’s the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:
here’s how the election in 2004 went:
this is the 2010 election:
As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided exactly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:
So, the most likely scenario is that people from western Ukraine would’ve fled to Europe, while many in central and eastern Ukraine would’ve gone to Russia.
Good data, I wasn’t gonna bother digging it up, but I’m glad you did. I think it’s important to remember that all realities are more mixed than we like to infer from plots and our preferred view. That is, while the geographic opinions are strong, neither the East nor the West of Ukraine are a monolith in their opinions.
I think you’re being a bit generous with the claim that central Ukrainians would have favored Russia as a destination, especially considering the data you brought. I also think you’re being generous with just how pro-Russia the East actually is, again considering the data you presented. I would also like to point out that the current front lines overlapping with public opinion tendencies is mostly a coincidence. Russia was intending to fully conquer Ukraine and failed. The current front line is only minimally influenced by the loyalty majority of the locals.
Still, I want to thank you for bringing the data. Good numbers are always better than no numbers.
Ukraine was already in a civil war past 2014, and most people in eastern Ukraine are ethnically Russian or have family ties to Russia. They do not see this as an invasion. A few slides from this lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 clearly show the dynamics in Ukraine. First, here’s the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:
here’s how the election in 2004 went:
this is the 2010 election:
As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided exactly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:
So, the most likely scenario is that people from western Ukraine would’ve fled to Europe, while many in central and eastern Ukraine would’ve gone to Russia.
Good data, I wasn’t gonna bother digging it up, but I’m glad you did. I think it’s important to remember that all realities are more mixed than we like to infer from plots and our preferred view. That is, while the geographic opinions are strong, neither the East nor the West of Ukraine are a monolith in their opinions.
I think you’re being a bit generous with the claim that central Ukrainians would have favored Russia as a destination, especially considering the data you brought. I also think you’re being generous with just how pro-Russia the East actually is, again considering the data you presented. I would also like to point out that the current front lines overlapping with public opinion tendencies is mostly a coincidence. Russia was intending to fully conquer Ukraine and failed. The current front line is only minimally influenced by the loyalty majority of the locals.
Still, I want to thank you for bringing the data. Good numbers are always better than no numbers.
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this lecture
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